Cardano extends decline toward $0.15 as retail demand weakens

Key takeaways

• ADA remains under pressure after last week’s 30% sell-off
• The coin could dip lower if the bearish trend in the market persists.

Cardano (ADA) continues to struggle on Wednesday, trading near $0.1600 and extending losses following last week’s sharp 30% decline. 

The cryptocurrency remains under intense selling pressure as investor confidence weakens and retail participation fades.

Despite the bearish backdrop, on-chain data suggests that selling activity from long-term holders may be approaching exhaustion, potentially laying the groundwork for a future recovery.

Dormant supply spike suggests capitulation among long-term holders

Recent on-chain data from Santiment shows a significant surge in dormant ADA supply re-entering circulation during early June.

Several spikes in dormant supply spent exceeded 20 billion ADA, culminating in a massive 40.6 billion ADA movement on June 9, the largest recorded spike during the current sell-off.

This wave of activity indicates that long-term holders who had previously remained inactive chose to move or sell their holdings amid market weakness. 

The surge also interrupted the growth in the average age of ADA wallets, confirming that dormant addresses became active again.

While further selling from long-term holders remains possible, such spikes are often viewed as capitulation events that signal the exhaustion of selling pressure and frequently precede market bottoms.

Retail sentiment toward Cardano has deteriorated significantly following last week’s decline.

Derivatives data highlights the decline in speculative demand. According to CoinGlass, Cardano futures Open Interest (OI) has dropped to $348.55 million, its lowest level since November 2024. This extends a steady decline from $585.35 million recorded on May 12.

A falling OI typically signals that traders are closing leveraged positions and becoming more risk-averse, reducing the likelihood of a strong recovery in the near term.

ADA price analysis: Can Cardano stay above $0.1500?

Cardano is trading slightly below $0.1600, maintaining a bearish trajectory after reaching a short-term peak of $0.1745 on Monday.

Technical indicators continue to favor sellers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39 is approaching the oversold territory, indicating severe selling pressure.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below the zero line, confirming that bearish momentum remains dominant.

While oversold conditions could trigger occasional relief rallies, there is currently no strong evidence of a trend reversal.

If the rally resumes, ADA could surge past Monday’s high of $0.1745 before hitting the $0.2000 psychological level. 

A move back above the $0.2205–$0.2275 zone would be needed to weaken the prevailing bearish outlook.

However, if the selloff persists, ADA could drop below Saturday’s low of $0.1486, with the major long-term support at $0.1000 also a target. 

A break below $0.1486 could expose ADA to a deeper decline toward the $0.1000 region.

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