At least 10 vessels have reversed course near the Strait of Hormuz. The likelihood of the US escorting commercial ships through Hormuz by April 30 sits at 18% YES, down from 24% yesterday.
The retreating vessels coincide with falling odds across multiple Hormuz-related markets. Traffic normalcy by April 30 dropped to 66.5% YES from 60% the day before. Traders are pricing in continued disruption to normal operations.
The market for UK warships passing through Hormuz by April 30 remains at 6% YES, reflecting deep skepticism about allied naval involvement on this timeline.
Daily USDC volume in the US escort market is $6,939, with $2,110 needed to shift the odds 5 points. The largest move was a 2-point drop at 3:15 AM, a bearish signal. The Strait of Hormuz normalcy market has greater volume at $10,250 daily USDC, but only $354 moves those odds 5 points, making it far more reactive to new information.
Ten vessels turning around is a pattern, not an isolated event. At 18¢, buying YES shares on US escorts pays $1 if resolved, a potential 5.5x return. That bet requires confidence in a US military intervention within the next two weeks.
Watch for CENTCOM statements and naval movements. An official US announcement of escort operations would reprice these markets quickly.
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Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/10-vessels-reverse-course-near-strait-of-hormuz-amid-tensions/
