Oil and gas production in the Middle East will take around two years to reach pre-Iran war levels, the head of the International Energy Agency has warned.  FatihOil and gas production in the Middle East will take around two years to reach pre-Iran war levels, the head of the International Energy Agency has warned.  Fatih

IEA chief predicts two years for Middle East energy recovery

2026/04/17 20:44
3 min di lettura
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  • Damage to 80-plus facilities
  • More than a third ‘severely damaged’
  • Prepare for significantly higher prices

Oil and gas production in the Middle East will take around two years to reach pre-Iran war levels, the head of the International Energy Agency has warned. 

Fatih Birol said the group’s research indicated that more than 80 energy facilities in the Gulf had sustained damage during the conflict. 

More than a third of these were “severely damaged” or “very severely” damaged, he said. 

The recovery will “vary from country to country”, he said in an interview with the Swiss newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung

“In Iraq, for example, it will take much longer than in Saudi Arabia. However, we estimate it will take approximately two years overall to reach pre-war levels again.” 

The world should also “prepare for significantly higher energy prices” if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened soon, Birol added.

The waterway, through which around a fifth of the world’s oil usually passes, has been at a near standstill for weeks. A US blockade targeting vessels entering and exiting Iranian ports began on Monday.

US President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday that a deal to end the war is “very close” and that peace talks could resume in Pakistan as early as this weekend. 

Shipments of oil that had already passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the war broke out have now been delivered.

“But no new tankers were loaded in March,” Birol said. “There were no new deliveries of oil, gas or fuels to Asian markets. This gap is now becoming apparent.”

Further reading:

  • Energy crisis ‘tip of iceberg’ unless Hormuz reopens
  • Global oil demand to fall for first time since Covid, says IEA
  • IMF forecasts severe hit to Middle East growth from Iran war

In a separate interview with the Associated Press Birol said that ultimately “no country” would be immune to the crisis in energy markets.

His comments follow a report released by the Paris-based IEA earlier this week which warned demand for oil is expected to drop by 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) on average in 2026. 

It would be the first time that demand has fallen since the Covid pandemic and reverses the group’s previous forecast that consumption would grow by 830,000 bpd. 

Last month, members of the IEA released 400 million barrels of oil in a bid to calm markets. 

In the interview with Neue Zuercher Zeitung, Birol repeated previous comments that there could be another release of stockpiles if needed.

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