DMCC chief says global trade driven by deals, not rules

• WTO’s authority ‘diluted’
• New era of tariffs and tensions
• Uneven global trade growth expected

The global trading system has been ripped up and recast as a web of individual deals, according to Ahmed bin Sulayem, executive chair and chief executive of the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC).

“The rules-based trading system that governed global commerce for decades is no longer the primary frame of reference,” Bin Sulayem said at the launch of DMCC’s Future of Trade 2026 report.

He said the authority of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the global body that sets and oversees the rules governing trade between countries and helps resolve trade disputes, had been diluted as governments increasingly prioritise national interests and direct trade arrangements over multilateral frameworks.

“The WTO’s authority has weakened further. Its Appellate Body remains defunct,” he said, referring to the organisation’s top trade dispute tribunal, which has been unable to function since 2019 after the United States blocked the appointment of new judges.

The DMCC report argues that global trade is entering a new era marked by geopolitical tensions, tariffs and competing economic blocs. It says nearly one in five merchandise imports worldwide are now affected by tariffs or similar restrictions, up from 12.6 percent a year ago.

“There is no stable rule book, only a series of live negotiations,” Bin Sulayem said.

The report points to growing fragmentation in global trade flows following the return of protectionist policies in the US under President Donald Trump and rising geopolitical tensions, including disruptions caused by the Iran conflict and the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year.

At a WTO ministerial meeting in March, members failed to renew the organisation’s long-standing ecommerce moratorium for the first time since 1998. That decision alone could put an estimated $159 billion in annual trade at risk, according to Bin Sulayem.

“In its place, bilateral deals, competing blocs and weaponised tariffs have delivered structural shocks to global trade,” he said.

Despite his criticism of the current state of global trade governance, Bin Sulayem said the WTO remained relevant.

“They’re not going anywhere,” he said. “It’s just that they face challenges and, similar to the Kimberley Process, it’s based on full consensus and that’s a big challenge.”

The Kimberley Process is an international certification scheme designed to prevent conflict diamonds, also known as “blood diamonds”, from entering the global diamond market, which requires full agreement from members.

Further reading:

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• Ahmed bin Sulayem: ‘If Dubai is singled out, I’ll call hypocrisy’
• Dubai is proven in war – now it must prepare for peace

The DMCC report found that only 4 percent of more than 130 trade experts and senior executives surveyed expect a best-case outcome for global trade during the next one to three years. More than 80 percent expect slow and uneven growth.

Against that backdrop, Bin Sulayem said countries such as the UAE were well positioned to benefit from changing trade routes and supply chains.

DMCC’s membership of almost 27,000 companies spans commodities, finance, technology and logistics, with firms from more than 180 countries operating from its Jumeirah Lakes Towers and Uptown Dubai districts.

Bin Sulayem said he is “going to get very aggressive” in the promotion of the food and agriculture sector within the free zone, including cacao, meat, coffee, honey and saffron, which will open up opportunities for trade between Europe, India and Sri Lanka.