“Sell in May and Run”—Will It Hold True for Bitcoin This Time? Analyst Issues Warning! “If the Price Doesn’t Rise Above This Level in the First Five Days, Things Will Get Ugly”

Anonymous cryptocurrency analyst Sherlock has provided a data-driven analysis of the frequently cited “sell in May” strategy for Bitcoin in the markets.

Sherlock’s findings revealed that the classical approach wasn’t as statistically sound as previously thought, while a more specific variation yielded remarkable results.

According to the analyst, the basic “sell in May” thesis doesn’t generate a meaningful signal for Bitcoin. Examining the period since 2018, May has closed lower in only 4 out of 8 years, weakening the generalizability of this strategy. This once again demonstrates that traditional financial patterns don’t always hold true in the Bitcoin market.

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However, the alternative scenario highlighted by Sherlock offers a stronger correlation. Analysis from 2020 shows that if Bitcoin fails to surpass its April peak in the first five days of May, it experiences at least a 5% drop during the remainder of the month. In this scenario, the average retracement rate is calculated at 20.6%.

Looking back at past years, this pattern has produced remarkable results. Declines of 10% in 2020, 47.7% in 2021, 26.9% in 2022, 12.5% in 2023, and 5.9% in 2024 were recorded. However, in 2025, Bitcoin broke this pattern by surpassing its April peak on May 1st and rising by 16.9% to reach $111,980 by May 22nd.

The critical level for 2026 is $79,485. According to Sherlock, if Bitcoin fails to surpass this level again within the first five days of May, there is a risk of triggering a sharp downward movement in the markets.

*This is not investment advice.

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