Executive summary
- Trend bias: Wave ii rally.
- Key support level: 24,629 – 24,842.
- If correct, wave ii could rally to 26,200 with higher levels possible.
For the past 3 months, Nasdaq has traded in a sideways range. The range low experienced a retest this week. The decline leading into the low was sloppy and overlapping, but the rally from Monday appears to be impulsive.
This implies another 3-5% rally may develop later this week pressuring all-time highs.
Current Elliott Wave analysis
Our Elliott wave analysis of the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) chart shows the rally from the November 2025 low was a diagonal pattern, a rising wedge.
The decline from the January high was sloppy and overlapping as well, indicative of a corrective pattern.
From a larger perspective, this implies new all-time highs may be around the corner.
When we look at the rally from Monday March 9 low, it appears to take the structure of an Elliott wave impulse pattern. This is likely wave ‘i’ of a larger impulse.
If correct, then look for a temporary decline in wave ‘ii’ that may reach 24,629 – 24,842, which is guarded by the 38% and 61% Fibonacci retracement levels.
Once ‘ii’ is finalized, then a strong push higher in wave ‘iii’ may propel NDX up to retest all time highs near 25,200.
If NDX declines back to and below horizontal support at 23,854, then we’ll reconsider other bearish wave counts.
Bottom line
The structure of the rally from Monday, March 9 indicates NDX may be in the beginning stages of a rally to retest all-time highs near 26,200.
A break below 23,854 will be reason to pause and consider alternate wave counts.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nasdaq-elliott-wave-end-of-correction-202603102318
