The Fed’s high-stakes map for 2026 prices

The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates anytime soon since new economic data released this week indicates that inflation is still not declining as quickly as anticipated.

These most recent data are already being examined by Federal Reserve experts to forecast potential price changes through 2026. Throughout the present year, this information will serve as the main basis for their interest rate determinations.

The Labor Department released a delayed report on Wednesday that showed a 3% increase in wholesale prices in November. This came after a rise of 2.8% in October.

A spike in energy costs played a large role in driving these numbers up. However, even when stripping out volatile categories like food, energy, and trade services, wholesale prices rose 3.5% for the year ending in November. This matches the 3.5% increase seen back in March, marking the highest level in months.

Stephen Brown, an economist with Capital Economics, noted that the impact of tariffs on these numbers seemed minimal for now.

Consumer costs and the Fed’s goal

Data released on Tuesday regarding consumer prices for December showed a similar trend of “sticky” inflation. The “core” Consumer Price Index, which does not include food or energy, landed at 2.6%. While this was slightly lower than the 2.7% experts predicted, it is the same rate seen since September. Most importantly, it remains above the Federal Reserve’s official 2% target.

Brown predicts that the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed’s favored metric, may rise to 3% based on these combined statistics. For the past three months, it had remained stable at about 2.8%.

Tariffs were a big worry in early January, according to the Federal Reserve’s “Beige Book,” which compiles reports from companies all throughout the nation. While some companies initially tried to pay for these extra costs, many are now starting to raise customer prices to protect their earnings. However, certain sectors have been less willing to shift such costs, such as restaurants and retail businesses. Businesses generally expect prices to stay high as they deal with these increased expenses.

The economy as a whole has shown signs of strength in spite of these pricing restrictions. Compared to the previous four months, when most locations saw little to no increase in activity, eight of the twelve Fed districts reported a minor improvement.

Diverse views among fed leaders

The implications of the statistics for the future are seen differently by various Federal Reserve executives.

The Philadelphia Fed’s president, Anna Paulson, stated on Wednesday that she believes tariff-related price increases are primarily restricted to tangible items rather than services. She does not think that it will result in long-term inflation as a result. She anticipates that goods inflation will revert to the 2% target by the end of 2026, with the most impact occurring in the first half of the year.

Paulson stated, “I am feeling cautiously optimistic,” implying that the short-term trend would reach the 2% barrier by December, even though the full-year figure might appear excessive. She anticipates some “modest” rate reductions later this year if inflation slows down and the labor market remains stable.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran is even more aggressive. He predicts that falling prices in services and housing will balance out the rise in goods. Miran has penciled in 150 basis points of rate cuts for 2026, significantly more than the single 25-basis-point cut predicted by most of his colleagues.

Miran argues that interest rates should come down because the “neutral rate”, the level where the Fed is neither helping nor hurting the economy, has dropped. He believes lower population growth due to immigration changes will eventually bring inflation down. He added that it is still an “open question” as to what is driving up goods prices if not tariffs, citing possible lingering effects from the pandemic or tech export restrictions.

Caution regarding lower-income families

Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, is less certain about the timeline. While he believes inflation is falling, he isn’t sure if it will reach 2.5% or stay higher by year’s end.

Kashkari noted that while high-income families are doing well, lower-income Americans are struggling. However, he clarified that their struggle is due to the high cost of living, not a lack of work. He warned that cutting interest rates too quickly to help the job market could actually backfire by making inflation worse for those same families.

“Overall, the economy seems quite resilient,” Kashkari said. He noted that strong consumer spending and new investments in Artificial Intelligence are keeping the economy moving. The fact that the economy hasn’t slowed down more despite high rates has led him to wonder if current policies are actually as “tight” as they seem.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates exactly where they are, between 3.5% and 3.75%, at their meeting later this month. This follows a period last autumn when the central bank cut rates three times.

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