Chevron (CVX) Stock: Premarket Surge of 8% After Venezuela Military Operation

TLDR

• Chevron shares climbed more than 8% in premarket trading Monday following the U.S. military capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend.
• The oil giant operates under a special Treasury license, exporting 120,000 to 150,000 barrels daily from Venezuela to recover PDVSA debt.
• Venezuelan operations contribute under 10% of Chevron’s three million barrels per day global production and minimal free cash flow.
• President Trump announced American oil firms will enter Venezuela to rebuild the country’s deteriorating oil infrastructure and boost international sales.
• Halliburton rose 6.42%, ConocoPhillips gained 6.64%, and Exxon Mobil increased 3.22% alongside Chevron’s premarket gains.

Chevron shares jumped over 8% during Monday’s premarket session after a turbulent weekend in Venezuela. U.S. military forces captured President Nicolás Maduro in an operation announced by President Donald Trump.

Chevron Corporation, CVX

Trading at $168.40 per share by 4:12 am ET, Chevron led broader gains across the oil sector. Halliburton climbed 6.42%, ConocoPhillips rose 6.64%, and Exxon Mobil added 3.22% in early trading.

Trump told Fox News viewers that American oil companies would deploy to Venezuela to fix what he called “badly broken” oil infrastructure. The president said the U.S. would start selling substantial oil volumes internationally. Meanwhile, a former Chevron executive revealed plans to seek $2 billion for Venezuelan oil projects.

Chevron stands alone as the only U.S. oil major with active Venezuelan operations. The company’s presence there dates back over a century to early 20th-century exploration.

Venezuela’s Role in Chevron’s Portfolio

Chevron operates under a specific U.S. Treasury license that permits exports of approximately 120,000 to 150,000 barrels daily. This heavy sour crude flows to refiners along the U.S. Gulf Coast. The licensing structure lets Chevron recover billions in outstanding debt from state oil company PDVSA while restricting government cash flow.

Through Venezuelan joint ventures, Chevron produces 200,000 to 250,000 barrels per day. That volume equals roughly one-fifth of Venezuela’s entire national output. U.S. sanctions limit how much of this production can actually be exported.

Despite the headlines, Venezuela represents a small slice of Chevron’s operations. The company’s global production reaches three million barrels of oil equivalent daily. Assets include the Permian Basin, Gulf of Mexico holdings, Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field, and Australian LNG projects.

Venezuela’s contribution to free cash flow remains even smaller than its production share. Chevron doesn’t control PDVSA and lacks outright ownership of Venezuelan reserves. The company can’t freely sell the oil it produces there.

These Venezuelan barrels exist within a tightly controlled debt-recovery system. The structure provides little room for earnings expansion. Any meaningful production increase would require years of capital investment and infrastructure rebuilding, even under favorable political conditions.

Venezuela’s Shrinking Oil Output

Venezuela holds the planet’s largest proven oil reserves at around 300 billion barrels. Current production sits at just one million barrels daily, barely 1% of worldwide supply. The country pumped over 3.5 million barrels per day during the late 1990s.

A 70% production collapse resulted from chronic underinvestment, international sanctions, and constant political meddling at PDVSA. Oil revenues fund more than half of Venezuela’s government budget and dominate export earnings.

U.S. enforcement measures targeting Venezuelan oil tankers have periodically slashed exports by half. Ship operators avoid Venezuelan ports, pushing PDVSA toward floating storage solutions. December brought a cyberattack that damaged PDVSA’s administrative infrastructure.

None of these disruptions moved global oil markets. Worldwide supply remains healthy entering 2026. Chevron’s share price showed no reaction to these Venezuelan challenges before the weekend capture.

Chevron’s Venezuelan foothold traces back to 2007 during Hugo Chávez’s nationalization campaign. Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips abandoned their operations and filed for arbitration. Chevron took a different path, accepting minority positions in joint ventures. This strategy protected investments reaching back to 1920s exploration efforts and the 1946 Boscán field discovery.

The current operational phase started in late 2022 with a U.S. license allowing limited production and export resumption. Chevron brought the Petropiar upgrader back online, processing extra-heavy crude from the Orinoco Belt.

Last year, Chevron stock gained roughly 5.5%, trailing competitors like Exxon Mobil. Investors concentrated on oil pricing, shareholder returns, and major growth assets in Guyana and the Permian. The company pursued capital discipline through tighter spending and scaled-back buybacks during softer oil prices.

For shareholders, Venezuela functions as a long-term option rather than a near-term catalyst. Chevron’s joint ventures continue producing 200,000 to 250,000 barrels daily under the existing Treasury license arrangement.

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