Is Polymarket rife with "Trump insider trading" again? A bet on Maduro's arrest on Friday resulted in a 1242% overnight profit.

Original article by Yeh Hui-wen, Wall Street Insights

Hours before the Trump administration announced its raid on Venezuela and the arrest of President Maduro, a series of perfectly accurate bets appeared on the prediction market Polymarket.

A mysterious account created last Saturday achieved a return of over 1200% in less than a day by betting on Maduro's downfall, sparking strong market suspicions about insider trading in geopolitical events.

According to CCTV News , Trump officially announced military action against Venezuela early Saturday morning and confirmed that Maduro and his wife had been taken out of the country.

While the move appeared sudden to the public, it seemed to have been foreshadowed in the prediction markets. According to Axios and The Information, prior to Trump's official public statement, the price of contracts on Polymarket predicting whether Maduro would lose power by the end of January fluctuated wildly late Friday night, suggesting that some market participants may have had advance knowledge of the highly sensitive military operation.

This incident quickly sparked widespread discussion about the regulation of prediction markets and the leakage of political intelligence. The timing of the transactions in this mysterious account highly overlapped with the timeline of US military decisions, with an investment of only tens of thousands of dollars yielding a return of over $400,000. Meanwhile, the geopolitical repercussions of this military action are spreading, with Trump subsequently pointing the finger at Mexico in an interview, hinting at possible similar actions against cartels in the country in the future.

This incident not only reveals the sensitivity of unregulated prediction markets during major geopolitical events but also serves as a warning about the boundaries of compliance for investors. It has been reported that U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres plans to introduce new legislation to restrict the participation of elected federal officials and politicians in such prediction markets, in order to maintain public integrity in financial markets.

Accurate betting yielded profits exceeding $400,000.

According to data from Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal cited by The Information, a new account created on December 27, 2025, has demonstrated remarkable foresight on Polymarket. The account has invested approximately $32,537 over the past four days, specifically betting that Maduro will step down before January 31.

Trading records show that the account made a large-scale purchase on Friday night, hours before news of the military action was made public. At that time, the market estimated the probability of US intervention in Venezuela at only around 6%. As Trump confirmed early Saturday morning that the US had captured Maduro, the account's position value soared, ultimately yielding a profit of $404,222, a return of 1242%.

Axios' analysis indicates that trading activity on Polymarket began to climb around 10 PM ET on Friday and peaked around 4:20 AM Saturday—around the time of Trump's announcement. In contrast, contracts on another forecasting website, Kalshi, for Maduro's resignation were only around 13 cents at the time, demonstrating a clear leading-edge nature to specific fund flows on Polymarket. According to New Republic, the account, in addition to betting on Maduro's removal from power, also bet on a US invasion of Venezuela.

Regulatory gaps and legislative responses

This unusual trading activity has once again brought the regulatory issues surrounding prediction markets to the forefront. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) typically prohibits trading in contracts that violate the public interest, such as those involving war, terrorism, and assassination. However, Polymarket, as a global platform, is theoretically not open to US users, thus placing it in a regulatory gray area in the United States.

According to Axios, in response to the potential risks of insider information misuse exposed by this incident, Representative Ritchie Torres plans to introduce the "Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026." This bill aims to restrict federal officials' involvement in such markets to prevent the exploitation of non-public political or military information for personal gain.

The New Republic report further points out that the timing of this deal is indeed questionable. Reportedly, U.S. military officials initially discussed launching the strike during the Christmas season, but it was postponed due to weather conditions. While the Trump administration has been relatively successful in preventing media leaks, the unusual volatility in market data suggests that details of the operation may have been known to some market participants in advance.