SpaceX's crypto-traded IPO was sharply falling. It now points upward to a $2.4 trillion valuation

A SpaceX-linked perpetual contract on Hyperliquid, trading under SPCX, rebounded sharply into stock's expected Friday debut after spending three weeks cutting the implied first-day premium on Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite company.

The contract traded between about $176 and $183 on Friday morning, up from a low near $153 earlier this week and above the roughly $157 level seen when CoinDesk wrote Wednesday that crypto traders were marking down the expected IPO pop.

Open interest stood near $216 million, with 24-hour volume above $150 million on Hyperliquid. Open interest refers to the dollar value of active, or open, contracts.

Hyperliquid's SPCX does not give holders SpaceX shares, allocation rights or any claim on the company. It is a cash-settled derivative. But because SpaceX priced its IPO at a fixed $135 a share, it has become one of the few live markets showing where traders think the stock could open.

Blockchain-based prediction markets have recently emerged as the go-to-place for investors to bet on the SpaceX IPO, offering a decentralized alternative to traditional pre-IPO markets. Unlike private equity deals that require accreditation and high minimums, these onchain markets are accessible to retail investors with minimal capital, creating 24/7 price discovery on IPO odds.

At Wednesday’s level near $157, SPCX implied only a roughly 16% premium to the $135 IPO price, down from about 60% when the contract briefly traded near $216 in May. At $183, the implied premium is back near 36%.

Other shadow markets are now pointing the same way. Bloomberg reported Friday that IG International derivatives implied a SpaceX valuation of about $2.4 trillion, more than 35% above the $1.77 trillion valuation set by the IPO price.

Elsewhere, Polymarket traders put 70% odds on SpaceX closing its first trading day above $2 trillion.

The reversal comes as pre-IPO SPCX has shown caution in the market, falling by about 30% over the past few weeks. It suggested traders still expected SpaceX to trade above the offer price, but not at the explosive premium implied by the bookbuild. And Friday’s bounce now says that discount is closing.