Military activities in Strait of Hormuz drive bets on $160 WTI crude oil in April

Military activities around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed traders to bet on higher oil prices, with the market for WTI crude oil hitting $160 in April at 1.4% YES.

The ongoing blockade and military activities around the Strait of Hormuz are driving bets on higher oil prices. The odds for WTI crude oil reaching $160 in April sit at 1.4% YES. The largest market move was a 25-point spike at 8:02 PM, briefly hitting 26%. The odds have since slipped back, but the Strait situation remains unresolved.

Daily volume is $704 in USDC, and it takes just $1,655 to move the price by 5 percentage points. The market is thin, which means it reacts sharply to new information. The 25-point spike shows how fast sentiment can shift on fresh news from the region.

Closure of the Strait of Hormuz would directly threaten roughly 20% of global oil supply. At 1.4%, a YES share pays $1 if it resolves, a 71.4x return. That payout depends on further conflict escalation or stalled diplomatic efforts. The current odds leave room for upside if supply disruptions worsen beyond what the market has priced in.

Watch for US-Iran diplomatic talks and military or political statements from Trump or OPEC+. These are the most likely catalysts for the next move in this market.

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