AVAX completed the week approaching critical support levels while maintaining its downward trend structure; BTC’s weak performance is increasing pressure on altcoins and requires a patient approach for accumulation opportunities.
AVAX in the Weekly Market Summary
AVAX closed the week at $12.29 with a %2.69 decline, getting stuck in the $11.97-$12.65 range. The volume profile remained limited at $264.91M, indicating that market participants are cautious in their search for direction. In the bigger picture, AVAX is still moving within the main downtrend; RSI at 38.62 approaching oversold while the MACD negative histogram confirms bearish momentum. Price failing to hold above EMA20 ($13.32) strengthens short-term bearish signals. This week stands out as a period testing the market structure, along with AVAX Spot Analysis data.
Trend Structure and Market Phases
Long-Term Trend Analysis
The long-term trend structure exhibits a clear downtrend character on weekly and monthly charts. Price has been forming lower highs and lows since the October 2025 peak (near %-60 decline), trapped within a bearish channel. The trend filter is marked as bearish, with $14.36 resistance as the main obstacle. In terms of market cycle, the distribution phase from the second half of 2025 continues; however, RSI retreating to the 40s band has begun signaling trend fatigue. For portfolio managers, the importance of the $11.26 support is critical as long as the trend does not break – a break here could accelerate the downtrend.
Accumulation/Distribution Analysis
The current market phase is in a transitional stage dominated by distribution patterns. On the weekly volume profile, high-volume selling regions ($13-$14 band) are prominent, while low-volume accumulation bases around $12 are attempting to form. According to Wyckoff methodology, this range is ideal for a ‘spring’ test; however, rising BTC dominance is delaying accumulation in altcoins. Although increasing closing volumes in recent weeks signal distribution, the volume cluster around $12.10 should be monitored as a potential accumulation zone. Strategically, volume increase and price stabilization are essential for true accumulation.
Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Daily Chart View
On the daily chart, price continues to stay below EMA20, preserving the bearish short-term structure. The 1D timeframe has 2 supports ($11.26, $12.10) and 2 resistances ($12.76, $13.22), making 4 strong levels; RSI at 38.62 shows divergence potential. The MACD histogram continues to dip negative, and price failed to test the $12.65 swing high – confirming buyer weakness. In terms of confluence, daily supports overlap with weekly, making $11.26 a high-scoring (66/100) inflection point. AVAX Futures Analysis data confirms the bearish tilt in long/short ratios.
Weekly Chart View
From the weekly perspective, touching the lower band of the downtrend channel ($11.97) was observed; there is confluence of 2 supports and 3 resistances, totaling 5 strong levels. Price has remained below the weekly Supertrend with bearish crossovers dominant. On the higher timeframe ($17.58 upside target low score 26/100), breaking $14.36 is required for trend reversal. Additional 1S/1R confluence on the 3D timeframe strengthens the overall bearish bias – total of 9 strong levels across timeframes provides a roadmap for strategic traders.
Critical Decision Points
Main supports are defined as $11.26 (66/100) and $12.10 (63/100), and holding here is essential for the trend to remain intact. In case of breakdown, $7.82 downside risk (22/100) activates. On resistances, $12.76 (71/100) is the first test, while $13.22 (69/100) is a bullish confluence point. Market structure could trigger a ‘higher low’ formation with a close above $12.76; otherwise, distribution accelerates. These levels form the basis for position sizing and stop-loss – for example, shorts below $11.26 offer R/R 1:3 potential. Follow the AVAX and other analyses section for detailed chart reviews.
Weekly Strategy Recommendation
Bullish Scenario
In the bullish scenario, breaking $12.76 resistance targets $13.22 first, then the $14.36 channel upper band. Upside objective could extend to $17.58, but partial profit-taking is recommended due to low score (26/100). Wait for daily close confirmation for entry; stop-loss below $12.10. This setup strengthens with BTC stabilization above $90K – suitable for position traders with limited-risk longs offering %20-30 upside potential.
Bearish Scenario
In the bearish scenario, breaking $12.10 support tests $11.26; below there, momentum accelerates to $7.82. Short entries on $12.76 rejection, stop above $13.22. Attractive R/R (1:4+), especially if BTC drops below $88K. In the distribution phase, prefer a waiting strategy for counter-trend longs on support tests rather than aggressive shorts.
Bitcoin Correlation
AVAX shows high correlation with BTC (%0.85+), directly affected by BTC’s downtrend. With BTC at $89,615 down %-1.63 testing $88,350 support, AVAX increases altcoin pressure. BTC Supertrend bearish and rising dominance make $11.26 support critical for AVAX – if BTC falls below $86,725, AVAX $7.82 risk rises. Conversely, if BTC breaks $90,944 resistance, a relief rally is expected in AVAX. For altcoin positions, prioritize BTC $84,681 major support and $94,276 resistance levels.
Conclusion: Important Points for Next Week
Next week, the breakout direction in the $11.26-$12.76 range will determine the trend; BTC movements are the main catalyst. Volume increase and RSI divergences could signal reversal, but remain cautious until bearish bias is intact. Position traders should target low-risk entries at confluence levels – watch for accumulation opportunities before altseason in the macro context.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/avax-weekly-strategy-critical-support-test-under-downward-pressure-21-january-2026
