Hardcore Trump backer sweats as farmers threaten to flip his seat blue

President Donald Trump is heading to Wisconsin to campaign for Rep. Derrick Van Orden, a third-term incumbent whose rural district is being squeezed by the policies he has spent two years defending.

Van Orden represents Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District, a stretch of farm country that produces more milk than most states and depends on roughly 17,000 farms to drive its broader economy. Politico reported that the region is directly impacted by Trump's tariff regime, rising fuel and fertilizer costs and trade disruptions caused by the war with Iran.

“I think [farmers] are growing frustrated with Trump’s administration for which Van Orden is a huge cheerleader,” said beef producer Max Hart. "They probably can't bear to vote for a Democrat. But they probably don't support Trump or Van Orden's policies."

The Cook Political Report recently moved the race from lean-Republican to a tossup. Van Orden's likely Democratic opponent, Rebecca Cooke, has outraised him and secured a spot in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Red to Blue program, which channels money and organizational support to candidates positioned to flip GOP-held seats.

The White House has responded with an unusual level of intervention. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is making her second appearance alongside Van Orden in less than six weeks, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. held a press conference inside a machine shed earlier this week. Trump's visit Friday will be framed around his administration's support for farmers, with the White House touting lower input costs, new trade markets and expanded rural opportunity zones.

Whether any of it will be enough is an open question. A Marquette Law School poll conducted in March found that 60 percent of Wisconsin voters believe Trump's tariffs are hurting farmers. In the western part of the state, which includes Van Orden's district, that figure rose to 67 percent.

"If farmers are struggling, it just boils down to everybody else," said Darin Von Ruden, president of the Wisconsin Farmers Union. "The bankers, the vets, the supply stores — all are impacted by what's happening at the farm level."

Van Orden has defended the administration's record and voiced support for the Iran war, arguing that prices will stabilize once the conflict concludes, but Cooke senses that the agricultural community is losing patience.

“When I’m talking to people at a dairy breakfast or at a county fair, I don’t usually lead with ‘I’m Rebecca Cooke and I’m a Democrat,’ because they walk right by me,” she said. “But if I introduce myself and I say, ‘I’m Rebecca Cooke, I grew up on a dairy farm … we need more folks in the middle willing to get things done, avoiding the chaos,’ [then] most people nod their head.”