Forecasts for the strongest El Niño in a decade promise hotter, drier weather across Asia in the second half of 2026, hitting crops and food supplies while farmers grapple with fertilizer shortages and costly fuel caused by the Iran war.

Japan’s weather bureau sees a 70% chance of El Niño emerging in the northern hemisphere summer, while China’s climate officials fear it could persist until year-end and India expects below-average monsoon rain for the first time in three years.

“We are already seeing heat and dryness in parts of Australia and India,” said Chris Hyde, a meteorologist at weather intelligence firm Meteomatics based in Switzerland.

“The last time we saw similar signals was during the severe 2015 to 2016 El Niño,” he said, adding that the two countries, along with Southeast Asia were the among the regions most susceptible to an El Niño and likely to show the earliest signs.

El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. One of the strongest such patterns occurred in 2015 and 2016, triggering widespread drought in Asia, cutting grain and oilseed output.

Typically linked to heavier rain in North and South America, the phenomenon could also disrupt the US autumn harvest, meteorologists and analysts said.

Adding to the weather woes this year are disruption in supplies of fertilizer, as the Iran war chokes traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a route for about 30% of world trade in urea.

Early dryness

Farmers in parts of Australia’s states of New South Wales and Queensland have already been forced to scale back planting of wheat and canola, following months of low rainfall that have led to shortages of moisture, fertilizer, and fuel.

“Our season has completely collapsed,” said Pat Ryan, who grows crops and keeps cattle near Merriwa in New South Wales.

“We haven’t had any decent rain for three of four months now,” he said.

Forecasts show more dryness over the next few months in Australia, the world’s fourth largest exporter of wheat and the No. 2 supplier of canola.

Dry weather in Southeast Asia also threatens production of palm oil and rice.

“The main impact on palm oil is felt six to 15 months later, due to the crop cycle,” said MR Chandran, an industry official in Kuala Lumpur, the capital of Malaysia, which is one of the world’s largest producers, along with neighboring Indonesia.

“A mild episode may cause only limited disruption, but a stronger and longer El Niño event could lead to 5% to 12% production declines.”

In India, monsoon rain from June to September that are below normal levels could curb yields of summer crops such as rice, cotton, and soybeans, while also reducing soil moisture for winter crops like wheat and rapeseed.

“The whole season is going to be below normal,” Hyde added. “There is a potential for severe drought in India, particularly towards August and September.”

This year’s monsoon is likely to bring rain that is just 70% to 90% of the average, Hyde said, slightly less than New Delhi’s forecast of 92% of the long-term average.

Abnormal weather could also be in store for China, the world’s biggest importer of farm products and one of its biggest producers, although it tends to experience less intense impacts of an El Niño.

“A stronger El Niño does increase flooding risk in southern China, so this could hurt rice and vegetable production in those regions,” said Darin Friedrichs, co-founder of Sitonia Consulting.

Risks of disruption in Europe, US

An El Niño could also dump more rain on Europe and the United States, especially during the US corn and soybean harvest.

While heavier rain in the Americas can offset some of the agricultural losses in Asia, excessive rainfall and floods can disrupt harvests and degrade the quality of grains and oilseeds.

“In Europe, if we have a lot of rain this summer, it could be favorable for corn, and vice versa,” said Benoit Fayaud, a senior grain analyst with commodity data group Expana.

“Then, for European wheat, when El Niño is expected to arrive, harvests should have already begun in Europe,” added Fayaud, who is based in France.

Also worrying farmers is the specter of fertilizer made scarce as output and supplies of petrochemicals take a knock from the Middle East conflict.

“If fertilizer costs remain high, low rainfall will encourage farmers not to use it,” said Vitor Pistoia at Rabobank in Australia.

“Why spread expensive fertilizer on a crop that is going to be poor anyway? That could be a vicious cycle that compounds yield loss.” – Rappler.com