ZRO Unlocks Today: Will Selling Pressure Emerge?

LayerZero is scheduled to release another ZRO allocation on October 20, 2026. According to DefiLlama's vesting calendar, approximately 23.63 million ZRO will become available to recipients at 05:33 UTC. The batch consists of 10.63 million ZRO for core contributors and 13 million ZRO for strategic partners.

The scheduled amount is equivalent to roughly 5.91% of the estimated 399.98 million ZRO circulating supply. That ratio is large enough to warrant attention, particularly because the tokens are allocated to insiders and early backers rather than distributed broadly across the community.

Selling risk rises when previously locked tokens become transferable. The price impact cannot be determined from the calendar alone. An unlocked token does not automatically move to an exchange, while reported trading volume does not necessarily represent the liquidity available at each price level.

The more useful questions are how much of the allocation will actually be sold, whether the order book can absorb those sales, and whether new demand can offset the additional supply.

How Much ZRO Is Actually Unlocking?

Unlock figures vary across data providers. DefiLlama lists 23.63 million ZRO, while Tokenomist estimates the event's value at US$43.54 million using prices marked on October 18, 2026. Tokenomist describes the event as 3.83% of unlocked supply.

The difference between 5.91% and 3.83% does not necessarily mean one provider is wrong. The calculations use different denominators. DefiLlama compares the release with circulating supply, while Tokenomist compares it with supply that has already reached unlocked status.

Circulating supply refers to tokens considered available to the market. Unlocked supply can include tokens whose contractual lock has expired even when some of them remain held by recipients, sit under separate restrictions, or have not entered active trading.

Some vesting calendars display a higher figure of approximately 31.25 million ZRO. That figure may reflect a gross vesting schedule that has not fully incorporated buybacks, relocked holdings, and allocation adjustments. LayerZero says its September 2025 repurchase of 50 million ZRO from strategic partners reduced that group's gross monthly unlock from 15 million to approximately 12.7 million ZRO.

The 23.63 million ZRO estimate is more relevant for assessing the adjusted October release. It remains a vesting-calendar estimate rather than proof that all tokens have reached exchanges or been sold.

ZRO unlock schedule for October 20, 2026, including an estimated value of US$43.54 million. Source: Tokenomist, October 19, 2026.

Tokenomist also reports that eight monthly unlocks are expected to remain after the October event, with the final release scheduled for June 20, 2027. Supply expansion is therefore recurring rather than limited to a single date.

An Unlock Is Not the Same as a Sale

A token unlock changes an asset's status from contractually locked to transferable. Recipients can then hold the tokens, use them within the ecosystem, move them to a custodian, hedge their exposure through derivatives, or sell them in the spot market.

The vesting calendar only establishes when the allocation becomes accessible. It does not reveal what recipients will do with it.

Transfers to exchanges can provide a closer indication of potential selling activity, although they still require context. Tokens may be deposited as collateral, moved for market-making purposes, or used in a hedging strategy. An exchange inflow is not final proof that the full amount will be sold.

LayerZero has published its own analysis of earlier recipient behavior. According to LayerZero's data through May 31, 2026, 134.7 million ZRO had unlocked to investors since the token generation event. Approximately 85.9 million ZRO, or 63.8%, were still held, while reported public-market sales averaged 4.9 million ZRO per month.

Those figures are issuer-supplied and cover the period only through the end of May. They cannot establish how recipients will behave in October. They do show why scheduled unlocks and actual market sales should be treated as separate measurements.

Four Variables That Determine Selling Pressure

A. Recipient Behavior

The October allocation is concentrated among core contributors and strategic partners. This differs from an airdrop distributed across thousands of smaller wallets.

Strategic partners may have acquisition costs substantially below the current market price. Some may need to return capital to their investors or realise part of their holdings. Core contributors may sell tokens for personal liquidity, tax obligations, or portfolio diversification.

Those incentives do not mean the full allocation will be sold. Certain recipients may be subject to internal restrictions, treasury policies, or long-term investment mandates. Wallet activity after the release will provide stronger evidence than assumptions based solely on recipient type.

B. Order-Book Depth

Twenty-four-hour trading volume is often used to judge whether a market can absorb new supply. Volume measures completed transactions. It does not show how many buy orders remain available several percentage points below the current price.

A shallow order book can allow a relatively modest sale to move the price sharply. A market with dense bids across multiple levels may absorb a larger trade with less slippage.

Relevant measurements include:

• Total bids within 1%, 2%, and 5% below the current price.

• The spread between the highest bid and lowest ask.

• Changes in order-book depth before and after the unlock.

• Whether liquidity is concentrated on one venue or distributed.

• The slippage produced by larger transaction sizes.

Displayed liquidity can also disappear quickly. Market makers may withdraw orders when volatility increases, meaning pre-event depth may not remain available once selling begins.

C. Derivatives and Hedging

Recipients do not have to sell ZRO in the spot market to reduce price exposure. They may open short futures or perpetual futures positions before receiving their tokens and use the unlocked allocation to manage or close the hedge later.

This structure can cause the first pressure to appear in derivatives. A more negative funding rate, rising open interest, and a weaker futures basis can indicate that short exposure or hedging demand is building.

High open interest introduces liquidation risk. A decline after the unlock could liquidate leveraged long positions and accelerate the move. An unexpected rally could instead squeeze crowded shorts.

The unlock changes potential supply, while leverage can determine the speed and severity of the initial market reaction.

D. Organic Demand and Buybacks

Additional supply affects the price most when demand is insufficient to absorb it. Demand for ZRO may come from traders, investors, ecosystem usage, institutional purchases, or buyback programs.

LayerZero uses Stargate revenue to purchase ZRO in the open market. The program provides a recurring source of demand, although the amount depends on actual revenue and should not be treated as a fixed monthly purchase.

Future use of ZRO as the gas and staking asset for the Zero network could expand the token's utility. Its effect can only be assessed after the network is operating, real activity develops, and fee flows into buybacks or burns can be measured.

Estimating How Much Could Reach the Market

The 23.63 million ZRO figure represents the amount scheduled to become transferable. Actual sales may be much smaller.

Three illustrative scenarios show the difference:

• If recipients sell 10%, approximately 2.36 million ZRO would reach the market.

• If recipients sell 25%, approximately 5.91 million ZRO would reach the market.

• If recipients sell 50%, approximately 11.82 million ZRO would reach the market.

The 25% scenario produces an estimated 5.91 million ZRO in sales. That is slightly above LayerZero's reported historical average of 4.9 million ZRO in monthly public-market sales through May 2026. The comparison does not predict a price decline because the periods, liquidity conditions, and recipient behavior are different.

The calculation also excludes sales by existing holders, new buying demand, transfers between wallets, market-maker activity, and derivatives positioning. Its purpose is to show why the conversion rate from unlocked tokens to actual sales matters more than the gross release alone.

Can the Buyback Absorb the Unlock?

The official LayerZero Foundation buyback tracker records cumulative purchases of approximately 2.54 million ZRO at a cost basis of about US$3.68 million from September 2025 through September 2026. The September entry shows 162,433 ZRO purchased for approximately US$351,543.

The September purchase equals roughly 0.69% of the estimated 23.63 million ZRO October unlock. All thirteen months of recorded buybacks combined equal about 10.7% of the October batch.

The cumulative comparison requires caution. The purchases occurred over more than a year, while the October unlock occurs on a single date. Repurchased tokens may also remain in a treasury rather than being immediately burned.

ZRO purchases funded by Stargate revenue through September 2026. Source: LayerZero Foundation, accessed October 20, 2026. 

The buyback program represents a verifiable source of demand, but its reported scale remains smaller than the monthly vesting batch. Its longer-term significance depends on Stargate revenue growth, purchase frequency, and the treatment of repurchased tokens.

LayerZero's protocol fee switch remains inactive. That mechanism is separate from the Stargate-funded program. Potential future purchases linked to the fee switch should not be counted as current demand until the policy is activated.

What to Monitor After the Unlock

A same-day price move may not capture the full effect. Recipients can sell gradually, use over-the-counter transactions, hedge through derivatives, or wait for deeper liquidity.

The most useful indicators include:

• Recipient-wallet activity. Transfers into identified exchange deposit wallets raise the probability that tokens are being prepared for trading.

• Net exchange inflows. A sustained rise after the unlock carries more information than ordinary transfers between wallets.

• Order-book depth. Lower bid depth increases the potential effect of the same sale size.

• Spot volume and slippage. High volume with a stable price indicates better absorption than high volume accompanied by a sharp decline.

• Funding rates and open interest. Negative funding combined with rising open interest may indicate increasingly crowded shorts or hedges.

• Monthly buyback data. October purchases should be compared with Stargate revenue and the size of the release during the same period.

• Circulating-supply updates. Revised supply data can confirm whether unlocked tokens have been incorporated into the tradable supply estimate.

Traders can follow the ZRO/USDT market on MEXC. Price should be assessed together with volume, order-book liquidity, and derivatives positioning rather than used as the only measure of supply pressure.

Is ZRO Guaranteed to Face Selling Pressure?

The estimated 23.63 million ZRO unlock increases transferable supply by approximately 5.91% relative to the pre-event circulating-supply estimate. The size is material, and the concentration among core contributors and strategic partners makes recipient behavior especially important.

Clearer selling pressure would emerge if recipient wallets transfer tokens to exchanges, bid depth declines, and leveraged long positions begin to liquidate. The risk would be lower if most tokens remain held and market demand absorbs sales without substantial slippage.

Stargate-funded buybacks provide an observable source of demand, although their latest reported scale is not large enough to be treated as a direct offset to the entire October release. Future revenue and monthly purchases need to be measured before drawing that conclusion.

The October 20 event is best understood as an increase in potential supply. Evidence of actual selling must come from recipient transactions, exchange flows, and liquidity conditions after the tokens become transferable.

Disclaimer

This article is provided for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. Token-unlock data comes from third-party vesting calendars and may change due to schedule revisions, relocking, buybacks, allocation classifications, or circulating-supply updates. Dollar values depend on prices at the measurement time and do not represent actual sale proceeds.

Crypto assets are highly volatile. Unlocked tokens are not always sold, while prices may move because of liquidity, leverage, macroeconomic conditions, and factors unrelated to vesting. Conduct independent research and consider your risk tolerance before making financial decisions.