Key TakeawaysUS nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July against forecasts for a gain of roughly 80,000, the first negative month since the pandemic recovery, while revisions erased a combined 103,000 Key TakeawaysUS nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July against forecasts for a gain of roughly 80,000, the first negative month since the pandemic recovery, while revisions erased a combined 103,000
Why Is Bitcoin Up? BTC Tops $65,000 as Jobs Shock Kills September Hike Bets, With CPI the Next Test
Key Takeaways
US nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July against forecasts for a gain of roughly 80,000, the first negative month since the pandemic recovery, while revisions erased a combined 103,000 jobs from May and June.
Bitcoin (BTC) jumped nearly 2% to month to date highs above $65,200 on the report and enters the new week trading near $64,800, as traders sharply cut the odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike.
CME FedWatch hike odds for September fell to about 40% from 55%, with hold odds now in the lead, while Polymarket traders cut the probability of a hike before year end to 56% from a recent high of 77%.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs collected $853.5 million across five straight sessions through Friday, the largest weekly inflow since April 17, with BlackRock's IBIT taking $693.7 million, more than 80% of the total.
Wednesday's August 12 consumer price index report is the next major test, with oil's retreat to the mid $70s and reports that President Trump is weighing an exit from the Iran conflict adding to the supportive backdrop.
The Jobs Shock That Moved Everything
The catalyst behind Bitcoin's strongest week in a month arrived at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a stunning miss against economist forecasts for a gain of 80,000 to 85,000 and the third largest monthly contraction since 2020. The details were arguably worse than the headline: May's gain was slashed to 63,000 from 129,000 and June's to 20,000 from 57,000, removing 103,000 jobs from the recent record, while annual wage growth slowed to 3.2%. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, but analysts noted that was largely because labor force participation slipped to 61.4%, masking the underlying pullback.
One senior market analyst called the print a massive surprise that could see markets completely price out a September hike, and warned that the steady jobless rate was the report's most deceptive detail. Markets traded it exactly that way: the dollar index fell toward 99.5, the 10 year Treasury yield slid to 4.64%, gold jumped more than 2% to a seven week high near $4,340, and the S&P 500 closed at a record. Bitcoin, which had spent the week pinned near $64,000 while traders feared a hawkish Fed, rose almost 2% to trade above $65,200, its highest level of the month.
How Fed Bets Repriced
The move matters because it flips the macro question that has weighed on crypto since June, when nine Fed officials penciled in a hike this year and three dissented in favor of one at the July meeting. After the payrolls report, CME FedWatch showed the probability of a September hike falling to roughly 40% from 55% a day earlier, putting hold odds in the lead for the first time in weeks, though the tool still prices a 44.4% chance of one more quarter point move this cycle. Polymarket traders cut the odds of any hike before the end of 2026 to 56% from 77%.
Analysts caution against declaring victory. One chief investment officer noted that a single weak report may not shift Chair Kevin Warsh's stance while energy and shipping risks remain elevated, and inflation still runs near double the Fed's target. That is what makes Wednesday's CPI release on August 12 the week's decisive event: a soft print would validate the new pricing and could extend the rally, while a hot one would put the September hike debate right back on the table.
ETF Demand Is Back in Force
Flows tell the same story as price. US spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $853.5 million across five consecutive sessions through Friday, their largest weekly haul since April 17, led overwhelmingly by BlackRock's IBIT at $693.7 million with Fidelity's FBTC adding $116.4 million. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted a telling detail: several Bitcoin funds have recorded inflows every single day since the Coldcard hardware wallet exploit surfaced on July 30, suggesting some self custody refugees are choosing regulated wrappers. Galaxy Research now estimates that theft at 1,719 BTC, about $111 million.
Ethereum is riding the same wave: spot ETH ETFs drew $244.9 million last week, extending their inflow streak to five weeks, the longest run of 2026.
The Tailwinds, and the Caution Flags
Beyond the Fed, the supportive list has grown. Oil has retreated from above $90 to the mid $70s as the Wall Street Journal reports President Trump is weighing an exit from the Iran conflict even without a nuclear deal, easing the energy driven inflation fear that has stalked crypto all year. The weekend's BIP-110 chain split fizzled after two blocks without touching the market. The offset is Washington: the CLARITY Act missed its window before the Senate recess and now waits until at least mid September, delaying the year's biggest regulatory catalyst.
Technicians also urge restraint. Desks at QCP Capital and DWF Labs describe the bounce as resilience rather than a confirmed breakout, noting Bitcoin still trades below key long term moving averages in a death cross configuration, and options markets continue to price meaningful downside protection. In other words, the burden of proof still sits with the bulls until resistance breaks.
The Levels and the Calendar
The map for the week is straightforward. Bitcoin needs to hold the reclaimed $64,000 to $65,000 zone, with the July 21 high at $66,910 as the gatekeeper to a larger recovery and $68,000 beyond it. Failure at resistance risks a slide back toward $62,000, with the psychological $60,000 floor beneath. The calendar stacks the catalysts early: CPI lands Wednesday, August 12, followed by producer prices and retail sales later in the week, all feeding the September 16 Fed decision.
What It Means for Traders on MEXC
Macro weeks reward preparation over prediction, and this one has a single dominant event in Wednesday's CPI. Traders can follow the live BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT prices on MEXC, set alerts at $64,000 and $66,910, and use stop loss and take profit orders on MEXC Futures to predefine risk before the 8:30 a.m. ET data drop rather than reacting mid spike.
Disclaimer: This content is for educational and reference purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset investments carry high risk. Please evaluate carefully and assume full responsibility for your own decisions.
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