Novo Nordisk (NVO) Stock: Analysts See 92% Upside as Wegovy Pill Gains Traction

TLDR

• Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy pill surpassed 3 million U.S. prescriptions just five months after launch
• Over 80% of new Wegovy pill prescriptions are from patients new to GLP-1 drugs, expanding the total market
• Rival Eli Lilly’s oral drug Foundayo launched in April but has trailed Wegovy pill in U.S. prescription numbers
• NVO stock was trading at $42.96 as of June 5, with analysts estimating intrinsic value around $74 per ADR
• TD Cowen raised its 2030 global GLP-1 sales estimate to $150B, partly driven by oral drug adoption

Novo Nordisk (NVO) stock was trading at $42.96 as of June 5, down roughly 37% from levels covered in a bullish thesis published in May 2025. Despite that drop, some analysts now argue the sell-off has gone too far.

Novo Nordisk A/S, NVO

The oral Wegovy pill has become a bright spot. Novo said prescriptions for the once-daily tablet crossed 3 million in five months since its U.S. launch — a faster uptake than many expected for a brand new format in a competitive market.

The company reached 1 million prescriptions in the first 10 to 12 weeks, then added another 2 million in the following 10 weeks. That acceleration caught the attention of management, who pointed to it as evidence the product is gaining traction even as competition increases.

CEO Mike Doustdar made the comments during an R&D event on Sunday, noting that Eli Lilly’s (LLY) oral obesity drug Foundayo had entered the market in April. He said the prescription pace “is acceleration” when viewed against that competitive backdrop.

According to IQVIA data tracked by analysts, U.S. prescriptions for Foundayo have trailed those of the Wegovy pill so far. Still, Eli Lilly holds a larger market cap and remains ahead of Novo on Wall Street by a wide margin.

More Than 80% of Wegovy Pill Users Are New to GLP-1s

Novo said more than 80% of new Wegovy pill prescriptions went to patients who had never previously used a GLP-1 drug. That’s a key data point — it suggests the pill isn’t just pulling patients away from injections, it’s pulling in people who weren’t treating their obesity with medication at all.

TD Cowen raised its 2030 global GLP-1 market estimate to $150 billion, up from $139 billion, partly because of the growing oral segment.

Novo’s forward P/E sits at 12.77, and its trailing P/E is 10.09, according to Yahoo Finance. One analysis using a discounted cash flow model pegged intrinsic value at approximately $74 per ADR — about 92% above the current market price. That same model used conservative assumptions for revenue growth and margins.

2026 Seen as a Reset Year Before Recovery

The bull case on NVO isn’t that everything is fine right now. It’s that the market is pricing in permanent damage from what analysts expect to be a temporary setback.

Revenue is projected to fall around 9% in 2026, weighed down by weaker Wegovy injection momentum, pricing pressure, and mixed clinical trial results from the CagriSema program. Those challenges are real.

But the oral Wegovy launch, the expanding GLP-1 market, and Novo’s deep position in diabetes care are part of the recovery thesis going into 2027 and beyond.

As of June 9, Novo confirmed the 3 million prescription milestone at its R&D event, reaffirming that the oral Wegovy rollout remains on track.

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