Can the XRPL upgrade stop XRP price from falling below $1?

XRP price has fallen toward the $1.15 area ahead of the XRPL’s June 15 upgrade, as weak momentum and a fresh weekly breakdown keep traders focused on whether the token can defend the $1 level.

According to data from crypto.news, XRP (XRP) traded around $1.15 on June 9 after falling nearly 17% from its June 1 high near $1.39. The token briefly plunged to a local low around $1.05 during last week’s crypto market liquidation event before rebounding about 10% as buyers defended a key long-term support zone.

Despite the bearish price action, XRP now has a major catalyst lined up with the June 15 activation of XRPL version 3.2.0, an upgrade that could strengthen confidence in the network and support demand for the token over the longer term.

XRPL upgrade improves the network but price still lacks demand

For the uninitiated, the XRPL update will rename the core server software from “rippled” to “xrpld,” a change developers have linked to the ledger’s growing technical identity outside Ripple-branded products.

The release also brings performance improvements for node operators. Developers have said server memory usage could fall by as much as 40%, allowing infrastructure providers to run nodes more efficiently as activity grows across DeFi, tokenization and real-world asset use cases.

Version 3.2.0 follows the late-May deployment of XRPL 3.1.3, which fixed issues tied to NFTs, Permissioned Domains, Vaults, the Lending Protocol and Multi-Purpose Tokens. Network data cited by developers shows that about 84% of XRPL nodes had already moved to version 3.1.3, easing concerns over upgrade readiness.

Security work remains part of the rollout. Expanded AI-assisted testing and bug bounty efforts have been added to strengthen the ledger as more institutional and blockchain-based applications move toward production.

Even so, the upgrade has not yet changed XRP’s short-term price structure. Traders appear more focused on the broader crypto selloff, weak momentum readings, and whether buyers can defend the $1 region before the activation date.

XRP charts leave $1 as the main support test

The weekly XRP/USDT chart shows price falling below a descending trendline that has capped rallies since last year’s peak. XRP is now trading under the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level near $1.60, leaving the 1.0 retracement area near $1.04 as the next major chart support.

Momentum remains weak on the weekly timeframe. RSI sits near 31, close to oversold territory, while the MACD line remains below the signal line. The histogram has improved slightly, but the setup has not yet produced a confirmed bullish reversal.

The daily chart also shows pressure from trend and volume indicators. Aroon Up stands near 78.57%, while Aroon Down is around 28.57%, suggesting the latest rebound has gained some short-term traction. However, the Chaikin Money Flow reading near minus 0.14 shows capital flow remains negative.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez previously identified $0.90 as a deeper support level if the $1 zone fails.

“I’m watching $0.90 closely on $XRP. If price gets there, I think it could offer a compelling long-term buying opportunity.”

A break below $1.04 would weaken the current base and open the door to the $0.90 area highlighted by Martinez. Below that level, XRP would risk losing the long-term ascending support line visible on the monthly chart.

Downside risks remain tied to macro pressure, weak crypto liquidity and failure to reclaim lost support. A stronger dollar, renewed Bitcoin weakness, or risk-off trading before major U.S. inflation and rate data could keep altcoins under pressure.

For bulls, the first meaningful recovery level sits near $1.30, followed by the weekly trendline area around $1.45 to $1.60. A move above $1.60 would weaken the bearish structure and put the 0.618 Fibonacci level near $2.04 back into focus.

Until then, the XRPL upgrade may support long-term confidence in the network, but XRP still needs buyers to defend the $1.04 to $1.00 range to avoid a deeper move toward $0.90.