Kalshi Better at Predicting FOMC Rate Decisions, US CPI Than Fed Funds Futures: FED Research

A Federal Reserve Board study focused on the accuracy of prediction markets’ data for macroeconomic forecasts found that Kalshi is more accurate than Fed funds futures and economist surveys. Kalshi has perfectly predicted every FOMC rate decision since 2022 and beats Bloomberg on US CPI inflation data.

Federal Reserve Study Finds Kashi Data Better Than Fed Funds Futures

The new Fed paper titled “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets”, authored by Federal Reserve economists Anthony M. Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan H. Wright, analyzed the accuracy of prediction market-implied forecasts from Kalshi.

The paper found that prediction markets outperformed Fed funds futures and economist surveys for key macroeconomic variables, such as FOMC rate decisions, CPI inflation, unemployment, and GDP, with lower error rates and real-time updates.

“Kalshi markets provide a high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark that is valuable to both researchers and policymakers,” the results noted.

Crypto and Prediction Markets Community Reactions

Kalshi founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara called the Fed paper about Kalshi’s data “fantastic.” They highlighted that the CFTC-regulated prediction market platform has provided accurate macro forecasts that helped both researchers and policymakers.

Benjamin Freeman spotlighted that Kalshi’s FOMC federal funds rate forecast error is lower than the Fed funds futures forecast. He claims prediction market traders have known this, but the Fed recognizing the predictive power of prediction markets is “great to see.”

Two years ago, the CFTC was in federal court to shut down Kalshi, arguing that event contracts were gambling. Senators called it “a clear threat to our democracy.” Now, the CFTC is defending prediction markets from state crackdown and seeking full jurisdiction over them.

Meanwhile, veteran trader Peter Brandt said “Fire all Fed PhD’s and let Kalshi set the US interest rate.” Crypto investment firm Paradigm founder Matt Huang also commented on the prediction markets forecast error being lower than Fed funds futures. Notably, Kalshi has predicted more accurate FOMC rate decisions since 2022, even beating Bloomberg on US CPI estimates.

CFTC Chair Michael Selig argued that prediction market platforms are federally regulated. The commodities regulator has even filed an amicus curiae brief to defend its jurisdiction over prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi.